Three major shocks, hitting Brazil, economic expectations

[] The price of bulk commodities fell, the global economic slowdown and the new crown epidemic continued, and this three impact have hit the economic growth expectation of Brazil this year.

International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Commission (Laga Economic Council), etc., the recent increased significantly lower economic forecasts to Brazil.

In the face of complex domestic and international situations, the Brazilian government has recently introduced a series of measures, based on the stability of the people, focusing on solving the difficulty of economic growth after the epidemic.

  The International Monetary Fund released "World Economic Outlook" in mid-April, predicted that the Brazilian economy will shrink% in 2020.

The World Bank predicts that the Brazilian economy shrinks 5% this year.

At the end of April, the ECE issued a forecast report that Brazil will reach%.

The forecast reports of three authoritative institutions confirm each other, this year, the Brazilian economy contracted or became a big probability event. Brazil is the most affected country in Latin America. In order to deal with the epidemic, the Ministry of Health issued a series of guidance before the Manda Tower of the doctor, including calling for the national people, and keep social distances. President Bosovardo is openly opposed, and it is determined that only the elderly needs to be isolated, and the comprehensive isolation will make the people unemployed and harm the economic development.

The contradictions of the two are gradually integrated. Bosoto believes that Manda Tower has made measures to respond to new crown epidemic, and the impact of the economy is not fully considering the economy. On the 16th of this month, he released his ministerial position. .

The new health minister has a post-job. He is completely standing with Bosonaro to make efforts to return to the right track as soon as possible. World Bank writes in the "Economy of Latin America and the Caribbean: 2019 coronary virus) .

The report pointed out that the external demand weakness, oil prices volatility and the damage of the economy are the three impacts facing Brazil in 2020.

The Analysis of the Wagasfront Brazilian Zhicu Watasji pointed out that as of March, the Brazilian foreign trade performance was basically stable in the same period last year, but from the second quarter, the impact of external factors to Brazil foreign trade will be revealed.

According to the expected financial market, this year, the Brazilian foreign trade surplus will be significantly reduced, and the Brazilian central bank has fallen to $ 33.5 billion last year.

  Since the epidemic, the Brazilian government has introduced a series of stable economic measures.

The Brazilian Ministry of Economic said that the total amount of government-related measures has reached 750 billion Ryar, including direct distribution of 600 Real’s cash subsidies directly to informal workers. The Brazilian central bank has also taken measures, such as adjusting the preparation rate of regular deposits, launching a total plan for Ryal, injecting liquidity into the market.

In addition, the central bank also reduces the benchmark interest rate, and it is possible to further down from the future.

The Digital Display announced on April 23, which allows employers to temporarily reduce salary and temporarily stop labor contracts, making at least 3.5 million people avoid unemployment.

  The Brazilian government has begun to stimulate economic growth after the resolution of the epidemic.

On April 22, the person in charge of the Presidential Civil Office announced that "For the Brazilian" program, invested at least 2800 billion Rial funds in a public-private partial camp to carry out infrastructure construction, to create more than 1 million jobs, driving the national economy continued increase.

He said that public finance will invest at least 300 billion RYL, and the remaining funds will be followed by the private sector.

From May to July, the economic team will be responsible for planning to draft work; from August and September, each project will basically determine; from October, it will implement this plan. At present, the Brazilian community is generally believed that the Brazilian economic deficit will continue to expand this year. At the beginning of the year, the Brazilian Ministry of Economy expects the deficit this year to be 124 billion RYLAR, but current prediction has been adjusted to 450 billion RAREL.

The Brazilian Insper Institute economist Madeth believes that under the current financial dilemma, "for the Brazil" plan is difficult to promote, it is easy to cause the public financial situation to deteriorate, the stimulation rate is increased, but it will not only get the role of the economy, but will Injury economy.

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